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Planning fallacy

We expect our own jobs to take less time and money than they do, even when similar jobs ran late. Students in Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin and Michael Ross's 1994 study guessed about 34 days for a project that took about 56. The outside view helps: how long did similar jobs really take?

Depth 1 · Foundation

You can explain why plans run late, spot the planning fallacy, and use the outside view to make a better guess.

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Depths of understanding

  1. 1

    Foundation

    You can explain why plans run late, spot the planning fallacy, and use the outside view to make a better guess.

    Opens after

    Cognitive biasThe planning fallacy is a cognitive bias: our plans run late in the same direction again and again.

Your path here

What's still between you and Planning fallacy, depth 1, in the order you can learn it.

  1. 1Fast and slow thinkingDepth 1 · Foundation · Thinking and Deciding
  2. 2Mental shortcutsDepth 1 · Foundation · Thinking and Deciding
  3. 3Cognitive biasDepth 1 · Foundation · Thinking and Deciding
  4. 4Planning fallacyDepth 1 · Foundation · Thinking and Deciding

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