Hindsight bias
Once we know how something turned out, it feels as if we knew it all along (Fischhoff and Beyth, 1975). Hindsight rewrites our memory of what we expected. Write predictions down, and judge decisions by what could be known at the time.
Depth 1 · Foundation
You can spot the "I knew it all along" feeling, say how it fools us, and keep yourself honest by writing predictions down.
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Foundation
You can spot the "I knew it all along" feeling, say how it fools us, and keep yourself honest by writing predictions down.
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