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Base rates

How common something is in the first place, before you look at any sign. When the thing is rare, even a good test gives more false alarms than true ones - so ask how common it is before you trust a "yes".

Depth 1 · Foundation

You can count out of 100 to see why a good test for a rare thing is often wrong when it says yes.

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Depths of understanding

  1. 1

    Foundation

    You can count out of 100 to see why a good test for a rare thing is often wrong when it says yes.

    Opens after

    Strong and weak evidenceA sign's strength depends on how common the thing is in the first place.

Your path here

What's still between you and Base rates, depth 1, in the order you can learn it.

  1. 1Good reasonsDepth 1 · Foundation · Epistemology
  2. 2EvidenceDepth 1 · Foundation · Epistemology
  3. 3Strong and weak evidenceDepth 1 · Foundation · Epistemology
  4. 4Base ratesDepth 1 · Foundation · Epistemology

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Once you know Base rates, come back to these — they'll mean more.