I don't know yet

About this video

Two teams are about to play the final, and your friends ask who will win. One says, "The Blues, for sure." Another says, "The Reds, easily." Both teams have won six matches this season and both have their best players. You say, "I don't know - it could go either way." Your friends laugh. Is "I don't know" a weak answer?

We often think there are two choices about a claim: believe it or don't. There are really three: believe it, believe it is false, or hold off. The third has a name, suspending judgement: leaving the question open, without deciding, until there is more evidence. To suspend something is to hang it up and leave it there for a while.

You should be as sure as the evidence allows, and sometimes the evidence allows very little. When it is weak or balanced, as with two teams of six wins each, picking a side would mean being surer than the evidence. The friend who said "the Blues, for sure" had no better evidence than you; they just didn't say so. "Yet" is the important word: suspending judgement isn't giving up, it is waiting for evidence, and after the final you will know. A person who says "I don't know" when they don't is a person you can trust when they say "I know". This video goes with the It's Fine Not to Know lesson of Knowledge Level 1 on Knaph.

Transcript

1. 0:00Who'll win the final? Both teams won six games. You say, I don't know.
2. 0:05There are three choices: believe it, believe it's false, or hold off.
3. 0:11Leaving the question open until there's more evidence is suspending judgement.
4. 0:17The Blues, for sure? Picking a side means being surer than the evidence.
5. 0:23I don't know yet. Yet is the important word. After the final, you'll know.
6. 0:29Saying I don't know makes your I know worth more.